As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.
Apple's Black Friday event has followed the same template for 8 years running: rather than discounting products, Apple gives free Apple gift cards with qualifying purchases. The dollar value of the gift card varies by product, but the pattern is consistent.
| Product | Expected Apple Gift Card Bonus |
|---|---|
| iPhone | $50-$75 gift card |
| iPad | $50-$100 gift card |
| Mac (MacBook / iMac / Mac mini / Studio) | $200-$250 gift card |
| Apple Watch | $25-$50 gift card |
| AirPods (all models) | $25-$50 gift card |
| Apple TV / HomePod | $25 gift card |
The gift card approach is good only if you'll actually use the gift card on more Apple stuff. If you wanted cash savings, Amazon and Best Buy beat Apple's direct deals every Black Friday.
AirPods Pro 2 are Amazon's loss-leader Apple product every Black Friday. Expect them around $179-$189 this year. If you've been waiting, this is the moment. They've hit this discount level the past 3 Black Fridays running.
Watch AirPods Pro 2 →AirPods 4 with ANC will likely dip to $149. Less dramatic discount than AirPods Pro 2 because the product is newer.
Watch AirPods 4 →AirPods Max see their lowest pricing of the year on Black Friday. Last 2 years they hit $449. Best time to buy if you've wanted the over-ear Apple option.
Watch AirPods Max →Apple Watch Series 10 typically gets $50-$70 off on Black Friday at Amazon and Best Buy. Apple Watch Ultra 2 sees less discount (~$50 max) because demand is high.
Watch Apple Watch Series 10 →The Apple Watch SE is often the best deal of any Apple Watch on Black Friday — Amazon and Best Buy push it as an entry-level holiday gift.
Watch Apple Watch SE →iPad Air M3 in the 11" 128GB Wi-Fi configuration typically sees the biggest dollar discount on Black Friday. Higher configurations get smaller discounts.
Watch iPad Air M3 →iPad mini 7 is the iPad most often on aggressive Black Friday discount because Amazon stocks them deeply.
Watch iPad mini 7 →The MacBook Air M4 in base config (13" 16GB 256GB) typically hits its yearly low on Black Friday. $899 is achievable; aggressive years see $849.
Watch MacBook Air M4 →MacBook Pro discounts are less reliable — Amazon picks specific configurations to discount. The 14" M4 base config sees the biggest cuts. Custom-configured Pros (M4 Max, more RAM) rarely discount.
Watch MacBook Pro M4 →If you want a real iPhone deal: trade-in the old phone + open a new line + watch for carrier-specific promos that drop in late November. Don't expect Apple or Amazon to discount iPhones directly.
Apple TV 4K rarely sees big discounts, but Amazon usually shaves $20-$30 off during Black Friday week. Worth grabbing if you'd been waiting.
Watch Apple TV 4K →HomePod mini sees small Black Friday discounts. If you want a multi-pack for a HomeKit setup, Black Friday + Cyber Monday combine well.
Watch HomePod mini →Apple AirTag 4-packs are perennial Black Friday gifts. Yearly low. Stock up if you have family travelers.
Watch AirTag 4-Pack →Apple MagSafe chargers always dip on Black Friday. Useful to stock up — one for bedroom, one for office.
Watch MagSafe Charger →Third-party Apple accessories (Anker chargers, UGREEN cables, ESR MagSafe products, Spigen cases) see Amazon's deepest Black Friday discounts. 30-50% off is common. If you need to stock up on cables, chargers, cases, or hubs, this is the moment.
Watch Anker Accessories →If you score a Black Friday deal and want a tech to handle the setup, data migration, accessory pairing, and configuration — mail it to us. We turn it around fast so you can use it before Cyber Monday is over.
This page reflects our predictions based on 2020-2025 patterns and current 2026 product pricing. We'll update with actual deals as they go live in late November.